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- Monday Alpha #30
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TL;DR: This Time Feels Different
BTC ATM IV
1W: 80.99%
1M: 63.30%
3M: 56.90%
6M: 56.33%
Index Price: $68,756.9
DVOL: 63.82
ETH ATM IV
1W: 82.28%
1M: 65.49%
3M: 63.42%
6M: 62.36%
Index Price: $2,468.37
DVOL: 68.01
Note: Front End Lifted
Marty’s Thoughts
Probably turn this one into more of a long form Marty's thoughts. If you don't have the 10 mins to read let me sum it up. Institutions are here, you asked for them to come, they front ran the halving, and bitcoin goes up forever against fiat. At what rate? Not sure, but most likely slower than expected. Notice how I said BTC, not ETH…. Lets cover it all in todays writeup.
Credit: Twitter @boldleonidas
This photo is a visual representation of what’s to come in the future. I’m not confident it matters who is in office, the right assets will go up against fiat forever. Check BTC vs other currencies, its at ATH. The argument that Kamala is "bad” for markets is also a little silly, she has been VP for 4 years and markets are at ATH. Sure, there may be a short term reaction, but this isn't some great depression about to happen as the media is selling it. The media is here to scare people, turn it off, go outside.
The real risk i see here is in US data collection and their constant revisions. This issue is on my radar as the Federal Reserve uses recent data to make new decisions. If the data is just outright wrong then the FED cannot make the correct decision. The jobs revision is mostly what I’m referring to, they have revised to -1,000,000 jobs than reported of the last few months. That being said, FOMC is in 3 days, there is a 100% chance of a cut. Fedwatch tool: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
BTC & ETH ATM Implied Volatility
After over a month of sounding like a broken record, its finally happening. Front end is lifted with the back end trailing. This will continue to climb into the event. There is a possible scenario where vols are still lifted post event, maybe getting sold off a little, but not all the way back to the norm. This is quite possible if there is any uncertainty or doubt, heck even a conspiracy of election fraud. Expect vols to return to the norm December/January.
BTC & ETH Implied Volatility Term Structures
Go baby go! Front end is wildin. This is just to add to the above about front end being lifted, with it being lifted through December, and back to norm into the new year.
Crypto 1-Month Returns
BTC, SOL, and DOGE are the clear winners of Uptober. Uptober lived up to its name for those coins, the rest got sent to hades. This time feels different. Everyday I contemplate the future of crypto as we know it (prob needs its own write up), its forever changing, and I am not sold on the current narrative of memes. Sure, 1 out of X makes someone a giga millionaire, but for every winner there is tons of losers, its essentially pure luck or you have inside information and the coin was cabal created and shilled by influencers to dump on retail. We need to return to a civilized group of people, focused on trading real assets, borrowing, and lending.
BTC & ETH ETF Flows and Returns
BTC ETF Flows
ETH ETF Flows
Bitcoin is the clear winner here, it’s taken the Crown. Check out those YTD returns… The king is back baby. Institutions have clearly showed their stance and position. They prefer BTC, they could care less about the Russian eferiums. The current ETH ETFs have no staking meaning no native yield for institutions, and without this what makes ETH attractive to these funds and firms? I can't think of any. ETH lost its spotlight this cycle as the shitcoiners, artists, and traders moved to Solana to ape memecoins and mint new projects due to it actually working(shocking), and close to 0 fees.
ETH is still home for defi purists and majority of corporate cripto treasuries. That being said, is that enough to keep ETH pumping? Don't take my word for it… lets take the market stance… ETH -50% from November 2021… As many of you know Solana is dead to me. Once Solana was down 19384 times over a span of many months, I ragequit Solana ecosystem, and never came back. SOL isn't even on my stocks app or tradingview. Im happy for all the Soylana bullievers that cashed. Fun Fact: This is similar to my Pepsi thesis, if a restaurant serves Pepsi… I never return.
Charts from Velo Data: https://velodata.app/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20
Wrap-up
Where does that leave us? Probably best to stay off the leverage this week, short term Vol buyers mostly get rekt… leaving us with spot and chill.
Recap:
Election Time Is Upon Us
Uptober Remained For BTC, Not ETH
Vols are lifted, pay attention
Bitcoin is the clear winner
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