Monday Alpha #35

TL;DR: Reality Check

Author

Marty
January 13, 2025

Monday Alpha

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

This Wednesday 2pm EST (17hr UTC) is the return of the Marty x Premia show. We have a lot to cover with a returning guest. None other than the fishing macro pimp, CryptoISO himself. We will cover all of the topics below, including The Market vs The Fed. Tune in for Boomer and Vol talk.

TL;DR: Reality Check

BTC ATM IV

  • 1W: 56.47%

  • 1M: 57.62%

  • 3M: 59.34%

  • 6M: 60.35%

  • Index Price: $91,681

  • DVOL: 59.81

ETH ATM IV

  • 1W: 76.57%

  • 1M: 70.41%

  • 3M: 69.86%

  • 6M: 70.38%

  • Index Price: $3,009

  • DVOL: 73.15

Note: Yikes, last newsletter BTC 104k, ETH 4k… Check ETH front-end.

Let’s get into it

Marty's Thoughts

If you're too sensitive and soft, and one directional headed into the market… Probably best you sit down for a reality check.

I’m not strictly bullish nor bearish most of the time. We are market makers, we make money when people cross that sweet sweet spread. We hold a spot bag and think BTC goes up against fiat forever… That doesn't mean that my shitposting ends, it will never. When we see things losing or gaining steam, we will comment, X is my free-flowing thots. As a trader, things change in an instant. We rarely as a maker have strictly directional exposure, but we manage some treasuries with call overwriting programs, and this week we sold all the calls. ALL YOU CAN EAT. From far dated OTM wingy stuff, to front-end 10-20delta stuff, we sold it all.

Below you can look into my masterclass of TA, the red memelines, they go undefeated.

I wanted to take this one to make it more of a blog post into my thots, rather than a data filled word salad. I've always warned about memecoins and always pushed for people to try and find their own edge and stick with it. No one listens. I had a buddy get rinsed, full liquidated on 10x leverage knife catching. Another story I heard was someone running $100 to $1.2mm back to ZERO… I am not sure where these peoples minds are, never full port anything on leverage, and why not take something off the table while you're up 100000x… The human mind works against us sometimes. As Jim The Cat says… “Always Take Profit”.

Lets go down memory lane, back to Nov 2024… The first week, BTC was 67k and ETH 2.4k… Now that we are mentally there, do you think we would kick off 2025 with 92k BTC, and 3k ETH. Though to be fair, ETH at 3k isn't saying much, kek…

With BTC at ATH levels essentially, people's portfolios are at all time lows… How can this be Marty? They were led to slaughter by their favorite influenza, let's use Banks as an easy example… Banks is always early has turned into a meme, and he leads his audience to the slaughter house. I know there are skeletons in CT, and only one pimp that I've seen has been public about it… from 0 to a few hundred thousand and back to zero this week, going back to get a job in real life. These are the untold stories and walking skeletons that CT has, everyday. For us to win, someone has to lose and that’s the truth about the markets.

Now this blog post is getting dark and negative… probably a bottom signal… but we continue nevertheless.

Before the Hyperliquid airdrop there were about 50-100 people on CT that had over 50-100k liquid, and that’s the truth. A lot of people on Twitter just sit around and mope without ever making any money, and that’s ok… Just don't act like you're a baller. I wanted to show my new favorite charts in Cripto lately. Hyperliquid's very own trader PNL and liquidations charts.

Total traders net PNL = -50mm+, while liquidations are up to near 18b… This goes to show you that majority don't know anything, and the house always wins. Sure, the house has risk and there is no free lunch, they are in the business of housing risk, managing it, and profiting from doing so. Again, for every winner there is a loser. That's the game we play. This is public on their website.

For the past month or two, we have been writing about rebalance season. Rotations were getting and still are getting faster… We have seen this all come to fruition. Let’s get an update on the current returns below… As we approach chop city, your only goal is to survive.

Crypto 1-Month Returns

Charts from Velo Data: https://velodata.app/

From top to bottom… 1-month returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps. Giga rinsed. This is the reality, and it’s barely just setting in for the majority of people. NOT ONE MID CAP IS GREEN… NOT ONE… Insane reality, but it is the truth. Majority of you guys would be better off getting a job and stacking sats, you would probably outperform your favorite influenza. We don't trade memes, we don't understand them, and we stay away, far far away.

If this is your first read of the blog, I am sorry… But long term readers know this is just a faze, ill snap out of it. The boomer in me has taken over my body this week, and we are in preservation mode, not risk on mode. Someone play that OK BOOMER tiktok of that lady dancing and singing… sigh.

Now what Marty? What's next?

I’m not too sure. We front ran the upside of the market a lot after Trump announcement, 67k to 108k in the matter of weeks. In my last write up, I was and still am ready for the chop. Chop a 20-30k range while the market settles and reprices things. We started this, with price down 15k off the highs. Looking forward… This week is a BIG WEEK as Silbert would put it. We have PPI tomorrow, CPI the day after, and Trumpet joins office next Monday… BIG WEEK.

If we zoom out a little, there are larger things at play here… It’s not just those dirty market makers hunting your stops… The FED has started cutting rates, trying to boost the economy while stating that the economy is stable and that they are going to use all their tools to get to their targets… The market is calling the FED's bluff, though rates are being cut, rates have gone HIGHER. This sort of disconnect in the market is not good, Mr. Market likes CERTAINTY. When we have uncertainty, we get what is happening now. Not just Cripto is down, stonks are also getting rinsed. BOOMERS IN CONTROL.

This Wednesday 2pm EST (17hr UTC) is the return of the Marty x Premia show. We have a lot to cover with a returning guest. None other than the fishing macro pimp, CryptoISO himself. We will cover all of these topics, including The Market vs The Fed. Tune in for Boomer and Vol talk.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk, now lets cover some quick options and wrap it up on this Monday.

What a week of trades, Mega bullish, some cashed, others getting rinsed. These are the largest block trades through the Greekslive marketplace. We can never see the traders’ whole portfolio, we just get this small insight to what the larger players are doing, it seems a few of them got caught on the wrong side, sellers in control.

Wrap Up

Boomers are in control, there are larger forces at work right now, cripto is just a follower of USD liquidity. This "negative” article is just a faze, a lil’ snap out of it. Bull Marty is the best version of Marty.

Memes are just memes, that’s it, don't get caught holding the bag.

We look forward to working with Mr. Weka my Editor In Chief the next month or so redoing the Premia Academy. Pumping out quality articles on options, perps, and all things derivatives in preparation for Kyan (Premia V4). 2025 is the year of learning, and as always, it’s for free.

If you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue. We will spend time on the next iteration of the academy making more practical and how-to tutorials on how to create various pay offs, or hedge various scenarios. If you would like to see a specific article, please reach out and we will include it on our to-do list!

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out March 2025 already.

Recap:

  • Boomer/Vol Chat Wednesday with CryptoISO

  • Memes Giga Rinsed

  • Chop City, Survive

Trade on Premia: https://app.premia.blue/

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