Monday Alpha #38

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Bull Market, But Just For Bitcoin?

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 41.37%

• 1M: 44.47%

• 3M: 50.64%

• 6M: 55.22%

• Index Price: $95,531

• DVOL: 46.94

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 60.76%

• 1M: 62.52%

• 3M: 62.45%

• 6M: 65.29%

• Index Price: $2,673

• DVOL: 63.45

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

3 months of chop, how much more can it last? I'm going for that it lasts longer than we want… We seemed to have front-run all the bullish and good news as soon as election results hit, now we are slowly repricing and putting our heads on our shoulders correctly. Overall ETH has been slaughtered, BTC relatively flat for this time.

It is funny to think that we are coming up on the 1-year anniversary of the ETFs' launch, and ETH same price, BTC up. The market has clearly shown who is king and what product they want to trade or be involved in. Just because it's a tradable product, doesn't mean it goes up forever… there is competition that pops up, the puck moves to the shiny new toy. I've been trying to stay more positive, but what kind of bull market is this? Just one for BTC? Seems to be the case as memes fade, ETH same price for 4+ years, SOL down 50% in 30 days… Rotations are faster and faster. I put out a tweet when ETH was $4K a month or two ago, and asked what changed in ETH from when it was $2,300? The answer is nothing, and we are slowly creeping up on a full round trip… I know the Premia fellas have a bull case, and are believers, but I'm getting old, I'm just not feeling the ETH love anymore. Heck, even Zuck at Meta mega outperformed ETH.

Where does that leave us? I'm not sure… If it was going to happen, you would think it would have already happened by now, you got all the good news you could ever ask for. If you believe in efficient market theory, then everything is already priced in. Markets are forward-looking, but we're just not seeing the love. You can look forward to staking on the ETF, but this only brings in so much inflow. Ideally you need more users, ETH to make money, and for people to actually USE the product. ETH is not BTC, it is not trying to be or said to be a store of value… it is described as the new internet.

For ETH to carry on, it needs more users, and less money fragmented across 1,000 chains. Chain abstraction helps this as the user doesn't know which chain they are using and money flows more easily… But I will leave you with something to ponder… If these large banks and institutions were to pick a blockchain to build on, wouldn't they just build their own that they control? It could even be a private blockchain, why would it have to be a public one?

As I write this, markets are tanking, and like most times… this is probably a bottom type of write up. Overall we have been drifting lower and lower, vols are getting crushed, and the hopium tank is running out…

Last newsletter I put out some constructive positivity with things to look forward to in the space. As it grows and more participants enter the space, it will create more and more opportunities for us as traders.

I wanted to just quickly cover what happened this past Friday. Bybit was hacked for $1.5 billion… which is not great. Though the amount is huge, the market barely reacted, it was actually green the next day. Bybit seems safe, and good for the money, even other exchanges are offering bridge loans to them, this wouldn't be the case if they were a fraud. As the market is still digesting the hack, overall it seems past us, they will continue on.

From top to bottom, 2-week returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps.

Mixed bag these past 2 weeks. Rebrands like Sonic are ripping, chains running competitions like SEI are up, but the rest seem to be getting cooked… Rotations are faster and faster… The majority of these coins won't be around in a few years, and if they are, they will be much lower. Find winners and stick with them… Mostly companies making money at this point. I would assume we go back to reality and only companies with revenue survive.

Quick Chart Dump Below:

Funding has been tamed the past few months. Some hot spots on OM, it got upwards of 600% for a period of time, as well as some heat on HYPE. Is anyone Long hype spot, short perp collecting funding?

All baskets negative on the month, worst loser memes, best loser? DeFi.

US trading hours still seem to be having the largest moves to the downside. I have also noticed on my own end, that we get WAY more action and trades in the US hours and Monday-Friday compared to the weekends.

Basis continuing to get hammered. We are at a very very low basis compared to what we just saw in December with upwards of 20%+.

Front-end of the week seems to be worse. Mostly futures open to Tuesday is our worst returns by day lately.

Charts from Velo Data: https://velodata.app/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20

• To Join Greekslive Block Marketplace: t.me/GreeksLive

• Find Greekslive On Twitter: https://twitter.com/GreeksLive

Some very interesting multi-leg strats the past week blocked through GreeksLive. Number 1 and 5 are simple sold puts or calls, an easy one. Number 2 is a simple call spread. Where it gets interesting is number 3/4. Number 3 is a long march strangle paired with a short april straddle. An interesting play, simply hoping that vols rise in March, but fade in April. The position isn’t that large since it’s split into 4 legs, with 34.5 contracts per leg. As always we can’t see this traders whole book either. We will go into more depth on multi-leg contracts in the Premia Academy revamp that Mr. Weka and I are writing in preparation for portfolio margin and Kyan (Premia V4) launch.

Wrap-up

The crypto space is still growing, volumes are increasing, even after the most recent hack for 1.5 billon at Bybit. These markets are ever-changing, providing us with trading opportunities day in and day out. Don’t let the shiny new memecoin grab your attention or make you chase some edge you may think you have. Stick to what you know, evolve on that.

If you must venture into new protocols and tokens, it is probably best to pick revenue-generating winners that are actually profitable. I think we should start to see tokens go up from protocols that meet this criteria, and this is not financial advice.

As we look into 2025, Premia V4 aka Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in some upcoming events I heard they’re doing. Majority of my 1st and 2nd quarter will be writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here → academy.premia.blue.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the biweekly Options Talk, if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out April 2025 already!

Recap:

• Basis is hammered.

• Pick protocols that make money.

• Bybit hack seems swept under the rug (they are ok).

Trade on Premia: https://app.premia.blue/

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