Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Reset Spring?

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 45.76%

• 1M: 46.50%

• 3M: 50.15%

• 6M: 53.08%

• Index Price: $87478

• DVOL: 47.64

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 61.71%

• 1M: 61.15%

• 3M: 63.13%

• 6M: 65.03%

• Index Price: $2,078

• DVOL: 64.34

Marty’s Thoughts/Recap

Check price, same price. For most coins, besides BTC, they have fallen under the Trump win annoucement pump on Nov 4th, 2024. This is a market wide issue, not just crypto. There was so much bullish hype of “what could be,” but there has been quite little to none follow-through. I think people’s expectations were mega bullish (clearly), and now we are just seeing reality setting in. Current rally seems to be led by equities, as there is a slight rebound after being down only for the past few weeks. Above is just a 6-month range, but if you zoom out, SPY/QQQ/Tech Stocks/BTC rallied to all time highs in January and February. A slight correction in a period of uncertainty is always welcomed.

In my last article, I wrote that you should really start to focus on companies that make money and stick with those, reality is setting in and speculation of what could be is slowing. I’m not sure how long this period will last, but the regime has shifted. I wouldn’t be surprised if it lasted the whole year. Of course, there are winners and losers, things that run and things that crash, but when we look forward, you want to own things that print money, not just the new shiny toy people are speculating on. Note: This goes for both crypto and stocks. As for BTC, it’s in a league of its own, there is no company, it should be looked at as a digital gold that appreciates over time against fiat.

Let’s look a few months ahead, not much is coming. You have the next FOMC in early May, followed by earnings in late May. Static until then. I think we are at the whip of Trump and his tweets, one tweet can swing the market and cause more and more uncertainty. As for the current administration’s stance on tariffs, it seems some of those are easing, which in the short term is great, but in the backend causes more and more uncertainty into the market as they flip-flop stance sometimes 3 times a week. The tariff plan is starting on April 2nd, we will have to wait and see any repercussions and the final outcome of this. This is a traders’ market, not an investors’ market. Don’t be married to your bags.

This week on the Marty X Premia Options Talk we’ll be joined by Dan from RYSK Finance and we will cover the above and give some pointers on how to position in the current market. Tune in on the Premia X account this Wednesday, March 26th!

From top to bottom, 1-month returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps.

In the past month, there were 5 green things. 5… Not great, fellas. I feel like I have been sounding the alarm for the past couple of months in the newsletter to not get stuck in alts, think about your positions, and reposition if needed. We are seeing the aftermath of total uncertainty in the market. Everyone has been screaming ALT SEASON for months… their portfolios have been murdered, I wouldn’t listen to anyone who has or is saying anything bullish about alts. The proof is above. Alts are a wealth destruction part of our ecosystem. There may be a few mega runners, but being early or picking the right ones is near impossible. You will continue to blow your chip stack chasing the next shiny new toy, essentially gambling.

Quick Chart Dump

Funding has flatlined. Besides some hot spots on OM, Hype, and XRM, market is dead. Does anyone know what is happening with OM? I would be curious to chat and learn. When it comes to funding ARB plays, there are still some out there, but market is not as juicy as it was in the end of last year.

All baskets negative on the month, worst loser AI, best loser? L1. I think a lot of people lost the plot this cycle… The AI will be built on Solana, the banks are always early crowd… memes got flushed. As we always state, we don’t trade things we don’t understand, therefore we stay away from memes. Today there is a nice overall market pump, but things like Solana are still down 51% since January high. Rotations got faster and faster, the game of musical chairs ended and people got stuck holding the bag.

US trading hours are ruling BTC trading hours with the ETF flows. We are seeing APAC session pick up major in ETH. This is a recent development, as we pumped a little over the weekend. Boomers are still in control and ETF flows are king. All of the rebalancing is down around end of trading hours EST time for anyone curious.

I decided to show a year of basis on both BTC and ETH. Basis is simply buying spot and shorting a dated future, waiting, then capturing the difference. Last year on the very far left we can see the end of the ETF hype launches as basis was in the mid 20% for both. 20% to lock up the trade, wait, do nothing, and profit. A lot of the initial ETF flows were people just putting on basis. We can see every time basis climbs, it’s into some event or some hype, the last spike was the election hype. Post-election basis is just down and to the right. You can almost get the same type of return in treasuries. Basis is not nearly as attractive as it was before, which goes hand in hand with less and less ETF inflows as less people are putting on the trade.

Monday has been our worst returning day for the past month, market opens and nukes… Let’s see if we can swing this around as we’re getting a Monday pump currently, we will check back in 2 weeks on this one.

Charts from Velo Data.

• To Join Greekslive Block Marketplace: t.me/GreeksLive

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Some simple rangebound and single legs from Greeks Live Blocktrade the past week. Number 3, a simple short put, seemingly bullish on the surface with a bet that BTC won’t be under 70k in June. Like always, we can never see the whole portfolio, only the trades taken. Nothing crazy or very out of the ordinary here. No mega bullish call buying, people seem to be cautiously optimistic…

Wrap-up

Quick wrap-up, make sure to check the bold text below for a special prize for our dedicated readers… a little reward for actively reading the newsletter every 2 weeks. We are in full price and market-wide reset mode, majority of things are down the past month. Bigger traders are cautiously optimistic, but remember: market is in a time of uncertainty and summer is around the corner. Funding is absolutely flat besides some one-off alts, if anyone has info there, please feel free to share on why OM funding has gone wild. See you guys in 2 weeks, I will bring some custom charts and more alpha for our readers.

As we look into 2025, Kyan (Premia V4) will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards. Majority of my 1st and 2nd quarter will be working with Mr. Weka writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. We may even do some videos as well for all to learn easily. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign-ups and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show, if you or someone you know wants to be a guest, feel free to DM me, we are booking out April 2025 already!

For the dedicated readers who made it this far, here is a code for a Marty Hat. There are 20 codes available for use, 1 per person. CODE: READER https://0ffa88-2.myshopify.com/discount/READER

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Recap:

• Basis is Hammered

• Pick Protocols That Make Money

• Bybit Hack Seems Swept Under The Rug (They Are Ok)

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