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TL;DR: The Giant Dipper… The Dip That Just Keeps Dipping

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 68.43%

• 1M: 56.70%

• 3M: 53.76%

• 6M: 55.33%

• Index Price: $80761

• DVOL: 56.85

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 107.03%

• 1M: 61.15%

• 3M: 63.13%

• 6M: 65.03%

• Index Price: $1,611

• DVOL: 81.55

Note: Check Front End

Marty’s Thoughts/Recap

“Change the chart to fit to your bias” season. These are the 3-month return charts for BTC and ETH. ETH is a few percent above its 2018 high — yes, 2018. This sell-off is not just a crypto sell-off, but a greater market-wide rinse. Let’s try to go through it simply for our readers and then have a small chart dump below for the current market stats.

Market does not like uncertainty. When policy is flip-flopping daily and tariffs are higher than expected, investors don’t want to play that game, which induces a sell-off. The Giant Dipper, the dip that just keeps dipping. We have been writing somewhat negative newsletters for a few months, got lots of clapback from our readers… but here we are.

If we look back a little bit, crypto was the first mover before TradFi. Let’s just look at BTC and SPY. BTC topped late January, SPY in mid February. Crypto is the last free market, it’s open 24/7, and at the end of the day, we are the first movers — either to the upside, or the downside.

This week, we enter a full panic mode in the markets. I would try and stay away from directional trades, knife catching, and gambling. As I wrote in the last newsletter, I would be looking for companies or protocols that actually make money. These are the only ones that will survive.

One note about vols: Vols are up. Vix peaked at 60 today, front end in crypto is mega lifted. You would think after last week that people were piling into downside protection and we would have found a little bottom but this doesn’t seem to be the case. A lot of people I spoke to last week and over the weekend are still optimistic for the bull market (maybe blind kek). I will keep you guys updated on when they capitulate, then we can start looking for a bottom.

Looking forward, in the next few weeks I would be on the lookout for a tone shift. Either emergency rate cuts from FED (which is unlikely), or spastically announced tax cuts from the U.S. government (which is more likely). These kinds of positive news will allow markets to settle a little, but for now it’s PVP, best of luck to all players.

As mentioned above, front end is mega lifted, uncertainty is at its max, expect full fuckery, wick city, and max pain to people trying to find a bottom or a top. If you are on the other side trying to sell vol, it is near impossible to find a pico top or bottom, it is something I would plan to scale into, not fire all your bullets at once. Vols can keep spiking. If you don’t know what you’re doing, it’s best you step away for a few weeks.

From top to bottom, 1-month returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps.

Rinserino… sigh. Anyone have any news on why EOS is up 30% in the month? Everything is mega rinsed, it was indeed not alt season. Where do you reposition now? I’m not sure, I would stick with BTC or protocols that make money, you can kiss the rest goodbye. Anyone claiming alt season soon has to be memeing at this point.

Quick Chart Dump

Funding for the last couple months has been flat and dead. Basis is dead too. Besides a few hotspots on some alts, it has all flatlined. We have slowed down our funding ARB bots as well on our end.

Basis is sitting 5% for BTC, treasuries are paying the same. Next time basis is 20%+ you may want to lock that in and step away anon. Basis is buying spot, selling the dated future and collecting the difference.

Charts from Velo Data.

Wrap-up

If we look back at this a few years from now, the tariff plan will probably have worked out for the U.S. The tariffs bring money in, and hopefully, that’s paired with spending cuts and a reduced deficit — otherwise, we’ve got a bigger problem on our hands. While the policies might benefit the country long term, in the short term they’re wiping out trillions in market cap, leaving people pissed as their portfolios get nuked. That said, let’s not forget: the average working American isn’t glued to the stock market. They care about feeding their families, gas prices, and — for some reason — the cost of eggs.

If the tariff plan can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and, in the long long run, actually lower prices for the average consumer, then yeah — the plan worked. The average American has been watching the rich get richer without getting a piece of it themselves. Why? Simple: They can’t. Their wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, and most folks don’t have extra cash to throw into investments — they’ve got other priorities, like paying bills and feeding their families.

Meanwhile, we live in our own little crypto bubble, where we meme that $10 million isn’t enough to retire and people casually flex $100k+ PnL cards. That’s not the real world and we’re often blind to that reality.

There were plenty of signs that the froth was upon us, but at the end of the day, it’s up to you to exit, hedge, or take profit. I’m honestly getting tired of the gambling with memes in this space, and as our readers know, we don’t touch memes. I really hope some of you followed that lead and didn’t get rinsed on some meme or rug pull.

Looking ahead, the only thing that can really save us is a tone shift in the policy. I’m mainly watching for potential tax cuts. Going back to the average consumer, they won’t be able to afford goods and items in the short term. Things may get worse before they get better. But if the government actually follows through with something like no income tax under $120k or $100k, that would be a game-changer for everyday Americans. If that happens, don’t be surprised if Republicans find their way onto more ballots come election time.

To be clear, I’m not saying that specific plan will happen — just that policies like it are being talked about, and they could go a long way toward calming the average consumer. As for big corporations reshoring production to the U.S.? I’m skeptical. A lot of them will probably move production to countries with lower tariff rates instead of back to America. Time will tell.

For now, I expect more pain before any sunny days — not just in stocks and crypto, but in what Americans are paying at the register. Like I said in the last newsletter, this isn’t going to be a quick fix. I expect us to be stuck in limbo for the rest of the year. Without clear guidance and with many uncertainties overall, best of luck to all players!

As we look into 2025, Kyan (Premia V4) will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards. Majority of my 2nd quarter will be working with Mr. Weka writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. We may even do some videos as well for all to learn easily. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue.

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Recap:

• Front End Is Lifted

• Uncertainty at Its Peak

• The Dip That Keeps Dipping

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