Monday Alpha #44

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Every Dip Is A Gift?

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 41.92%

• 1M: 42.54%

• 3M: 46.75%

• 6M: 49.71%

• Index Price: $104790

• DVOL: 44.22

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 74.05%

• 1M: 68.54%

• 3M: 66.36%

• 6M: 66.69%

• Index Price: $2461

• DVOL: 71.68

Note: ETH front-end is way lifted

This week on the Marty X Premia Options Show we have Mr. Ace and Professor Satoshi covering options flows and the 90 Day Golden Bull! Tune in on Wednesday at 2pm EST / 18hr UTC!

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

When you look at the market like this, a 1-month line chart shows the price has just been moving up and to the right. BTC is sitting just under its all-time high at 105k after a whipsaw of price action last night, peaking at 107k.

In the last newsletter I wrote that the proof is in the charts: BTC is still the clear winner here. Yes, even after ETH increased by 20% day over day 2 weeks ago. Just remember, ETH's all-time high was in November 2021… it's May 2025. When a new all-time high is reached, I'll bend the knee and cheer ETH on. Until then, it's a BTC party, and we just had the highest weekly close ever. If you don’t believe me, just check the total ETF inflows: BTC 41.96B, ETH 2.54B… the proof is there, folks.

Since the price is up, we can write a bullish article. However, I want to quickly touch on some bigger macro picture issues people are watching that could push us down. We have Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating as debt continues to rise, and rates are up today. But BTC, ES, and NQ are about to go green for today, so who will be on the right side? Another note is that tariffs were a meme; the US folded. A 90-day temporary deal was sealed with China over a weekend in Switzerland. The agreement was much lower than what Trump and his party were claiming they were going to get on the news. I expect the same outcome for future deals that will be announced shortly (lower tariff rates than previously announced). Remember that markets are forward-looking, 18-24 months out, and all the scares seem to be behind us. That being said, if you were in memes, you had a mega pump off the bottom, just to be sold off, and are currently sitting way below all-time highs. Memes are okay for short directional trades, but too many people get attached to their holdings, thinking they will outperform an entire cycle, and that's not the case. Your maximum holding time should be hours to days at most. Not financial advice… best of luck to all players. We will stick to BTC and ETH spot and options.

From top to bottom, 1-month returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps.

The Golden Bull is here off the lows. Out of all of them, only ONE is red. We are so back off the lows… just don’t zoom out… Most aren’t even near ATH even with the recent pump.

Quick Chart Dump Below:

Hype and XMR picked up some heat over the past 2 weeks. Im curious, is anyone taking advantage of these funding arbs across exchanges? There is more and more of them happening currently.

Bull Season off the lows! Every sector up and ripping. Biggest winner MEME, smallest winner is L2 basket.

We have a new CME futures product! The SOLANA Futures! We will continue to keep an eye and update our readers of the new flows! As the months/years carry on, I expect us to move down the risk curve. That means more and more products will have futures and and ETF, but just because they are a tradable product doesn’t mean they go up forever.

We are still awaiting staking for the ETH ETF… Patience…

We noted last newsletter than basis was cooking up, you can see inflows into all of the products across the board, people are taking advantage of that sweet sweet ~10% basis! As basis remains high, expect these flows to continue as traders and institutions put on a “risk free” trade.

Charts from Velo Data: https://velodata.app/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20

Greeks.live Block Trades

• To Join Greekslive Block Marketplace: t.me/GreeksLive

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We are grateful to get a peak into the largest trades provided by Greeks.live. These trades were the largest trades blocked on greeks live this past week.

As price is flip flopping every hour, traders are flip flopping positions! As price goes down, they are buying downside and protecting their books more and more, but when price goes up… there is always that “What if this is it!?!” and traders are buying upside mostly via call spreads.

One that isn't listed here that has everyones eyes on is… ETH December 3k-3.2k/6k call spreads bought! The trade was a bunch of 3k/6k Call spreads, and 3.2k/6k Call spreads. We will continue to keep our readers up to date on new flows that come in.

Wrap-up

My thesis that it's a bull run, but just for BTC, still stands. We are sitting at 105k and climbing higher by the minute as I continue to write this newsletter. Let's take a step back, though. It is May, and usually, it's "sell in May and go away," but we had a choppy few months. The world seemed over, and now we are back.

As mentioned earlier, markets are forward-looking, and it is in Trump's and his team's best interest to keep the markets afloat and not crash the US economy. There is some refinancing of US debt needed to get the 10-year down, but overall, they cannot crash the economy and risk going down as the worst administration in history. In the US, there are also midterms next year. The US standing needs to look good going into midterms, and that includes the markets. We may have a choppy year, but I expect more upward movement for major stocks, indices, major cryptocurrencies, and protocols that actually make money. All others can go to zero; I do not care. So, that being said, is every dip a gift?

I know it feels like we have had 3 cycles in the past 3 months, but not everyone is meant to be a full time trader. Certainly gambling on memes directionally is not trading, and is gambling… SO be careful and don’t get married to your bags. If we continue to go up, please take something off the table. If you made life changing money, please change your life.

As we look into 2025, Premia V4 aka Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards. Majority of my 2nd quarter will be working with Mr. Weka writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. We may even do some videos as well for all to learn easily. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out July 2025 already!

Note: email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before.

Recap:

• Basis is Back, Inflows continue, New Solana Future

• Tariffs were a meme

• Biggest Options trade is 3-3.2k/6k Call Spreads.

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