Monday Alpha #46

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Tell It How It Is - The Market Don't Care

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 36.58%

• 1M: 39.16%

• 3M: 43.36%

• 6M: 46.39%

• Index Price: $107,868

• DVOL: 40.74

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 71.90%

• 1M: 71.08%

• 3M: 68.31%

• 6M: 67.24%

• Index Price: $2,638

• DVOL: 75.03

Note: ETH front-end is still way lifted. Ongoing for weeks now.

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

The bull run for Bitcoin continues, and what a wild two weeks it's been. The world feels like it's teetering on the edge, with WW3 fears creeping into headlines, the Trump/Musk bromance hitting the rocks, and markets swinging between dips and rips with the kind of volatility that separates the pimps from the limps.

In our last newsletter, I mentioned picking up some protective puts to hedge against a big run. That same week, the Trump/Musk drama unfolded and we watched BTC nuke down to around the 100k level. Since then, we've seen the full cycle play out a mega dip that had me cashing out those puts, followed by a 10k rip, then another nuke last Thursday/Friday on World War 3 scares, only to find ourselves sitting higher today than where we were in the last newsletter.

The puts got closed on the dip, and I'm currently positioned in September/December upside calls since the WW3 scare hit the tape. Of course, this is not financial advice. Now, I'm not usually one to dive deep into personal positions because things change constantly, positions swing, and it's never a complete picture of the full portfolio, but this time the play worked out well.

Here's the thing about trading… when the world is panicking and everything gets pushed to the extreme, that's your time to pounce. While everyone else is running scared, that's when opportunities present themselves. A lot of trading and I mean A LOT of trading is done by algo’s, and when there is an extreme movement… Algos push us even deeper into that direction just for the market to settle shortly after and there is usually a mean reversion back to normal… This time around, BTC vol is actually LOWER in this newsletter period than the last one. Which is insane given the geopolitical tension and what has unfolded the past weekend.

We scattered around some September/December calls and call spreads, closing about half this morning on the rip. The market gave us exactly what we were looking for. Price was nuking, back-end contracts were still trading in the 40 handle, this was a clear signal to buy some cheap upside.

As we covered in the last newsletter, Bitcoin has entered its institutional adoption phase. This is what us Bitcoiners dreamed of, selling our coins to the institutions. We're seeing accumulation across the board from all kinds of investors, and more keep flocking to the space. Blackrock has a product to sell, and boy are they selling it. This creates a dynamic of slow grind up against fiat currencies with volatilities drifting lower over time. But that doesn't mean the whole market can't get spooked and crash into an uncertain weekend. These things happen, and they'll continue to happen.

I'm not much of a political person. I don't vote, nor do I have any desire to be a billionaire voting with my dollars. It all seems silly to me, more of a headache than anything else. People forget that politics Twitter isn't the real world. You can still go outside without being in a war zone. Be grateful for that simple reality. Besides Gainzy, that MF is really in a war zone, we hope he stays safe and his country finds peace.

When we have these geopolitical scares, the market goes risk off, and that includes Bitcoin. BTC still isn’t the Gold style safe haven people claim it to be… GOLD was UP, BTC was DOWN. BTC seems to be finding its ground as the best risk asset, and can hide under the cloak of digital gold to be sold to institutional investors to match their theses.

BTC is the last free market, it's the first mover, and it moves the most in both directions. But here's what's telling about the current state of the markets maturity… this market ate through and saw right through the Middle East scare within a single day. We had a crash Thursday/Friday, and we're now trading much higher this morning, and we were climbing all weekend off the lows. When there's a shakeout, the game plan is simple… have some cash ready and deploy it into cheap bets that can pay off big. The market rewards those who can stay calm when others are running around like a chicken with their head cut off.

No one wants war it's not good for anyone, and innocent lives are at stake. But the market doesn't care about the noise… it sees right through it for what it is. The Middle East doesn't want peace, they'll continue this garbage as they always have, and nothing ever really changes. Israel has been claiming Iran is MONTHS AWAY from a nuclear missile since the 1990’s… Nothing ever happens. It is gross at the amount of propaganda there is from both sides forcing people to pick sides. Brazilian News is the best during times like this, they don’t have any involvement, they call it out how it is, and keep clean news coming to the people.

Here's the kicker… Bitcoin's price was lower during the Elon and Trump drama than it is during this Middle East feud. That should tell you everything you need to know.

It is Israel vs Iran, not a G7 country… heck its not even G20 countries fighting. Though it is sad, it is noise in the global picture of things. Not to get political, but what’s really messed up is that Oman was supposed to host talks between Iran and US about Iran Nuclear program on SUNDAY… Israel derailed that and started firing missiles, obviously to stop the talks from happening… It is a sick joke, putting people’s lives at stake. I don’t pick sides, it is all wrong, I just play it how it is. This is simply my view, and not political advice.

As we enter summer, you should probably go out and enjoy it. If you’re not positioned, don’t chase perps, I would be in a BTC spot bag with some cash on the side to add into dips. I saw some folks on the timeline today exiting into cash and stepping back from crypto to set up their real life. As always, if you've made some life changing money, please change your life.

Zoom out, the BTC bull run will continue against fiat in the long term, the market will provide opportunities, and the world will keep spinning. Stay sharp, stay grateful, and remember that in this game, the best trades often come when everyone else is too scared to make them. This is Marty's Thoughts telling it how it is, no sugar coating. I don’t mean to get too political and offend anyone or pick sides. Both sides are wrong.

Let’s wrap it up… It is mid June, BTC is up 15% YTD, and off 3% from new highs. A mini WW3 passed this weekend, US inflation came in COOLER the other week… and there is FOMC this week. Place your bets. You can see the odds on the CME FEDWATCH tool. There is a 99.8% no change. Powell will hit the stage and market will move because of the color tie he is wearing kek. The market knows there will be no change (99.8%), and it will look for the press conference and his tone of voice. Clearly, he doesn’t care what Trump wants him to do. Remember, the market likes certainty. If data is lining up as expected, J Pow’s tone is correct, etc then we prob keep this train pushing. If there is a wrench thrown, then there is opportunity there.

• Charts from Velo: https://velodata.app/

• Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20

Final Thoughts

As we look into 2025, Premia V4 aka Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards. Majority of my 2nd quarter will be working with Mr. Weka writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. We may even do some videos as well for all to learn easily. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue (currently undergoing maintenance, so some courses might be unavailable).

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out July 2025 already!

Note: email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before.

Recap:

• Vol down, Price Up

• Middle East Not Maturing, BTC Is Though

• Marty’s PS Cashed, Now In Sept/Dec CS, NFA

• 99.8% No Change At FOMC

Trade on Premia: https://app.premia.blue/

Join The Marty Community Telegram: https://t.me/optionswithmarty

Mind you there is never a paid group, all information is free and we will never ask you for money. The Telegram is always free and provides a community for people to chat and learn.