Monday Alpha #48

TL;DR: We are so so so back

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: We Are So So So Back

BTC ATM IV

  • 1W: 39.32%

  • 1M: 37.77%

  • 3M: 41.79%

  • 6M: 44.91%

  • Index Price: $120,779

  • DVOL: 39.46

ETH ATM IV

  • 1W: 67.87%

  • 1M: 65.51%

  • 3M: 65.66%

  • 6M: 65.79%

  • Index Price: $3,037

  • DVOL: 66.93

Note: Bam! Front-end lifted.

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

Note: I’m writing this on Sunday Evening/Monday morning as the PRE alpha, as I will be traveling tomorrow. Thank you for all the constant readership and support from everyone.

2-Week Crypto Returns (Large Caps)

2-Week Crypto Returns (Mid Caps)

2-Week Crypto Returns (Small Caps)

Nothing but green fellas... MKR & KAIA are ruining the Green Party. Above are the 2-week returns for Large, Mid, and Small Caps. We have been writing about buying longer dated upside, covering both BTC & ETH, but we are quite surprised in both the size and speed of the past 2 weeks. If you have been reading the newsletter, we have been preparing, planning, and executing. I was expecting more September and December for a gradual climb up into the classic Santa Rally… but this is insane. Everything is running season. Buy n’ hold season. Long your longs season.

In all seriousness, most things aren’t even close to ATH besides a few of the coins even with the major run. We go back to our saying… It’s a bull run, but just for BTC.

As always for our readers we try reel everyone back in to reality instead of falling for the mania. Please don’t round trip life-changing money. I’m not saying it's over, but the market is always here and just as fast as we can go up 10k, we can go down 10k. I will say… I would have preferred to have a move like this during the week when the big boys are here, we would have a better shot at holding and not retracing. (As I write this we spiked to BTC 122k while ETH sits at 3046 on a red hourly candle. Not TA by any means, check back tomorrow during US open see where we truly settle—either higher or lower.)

Coming in this week we got a big one. US CPI on Tuesday, US PPI on Wednesday, and various FOMC members speaking throughout the week. A cool US CPI getting through The Tariff Time could give the markets the fuel we need to continue. Of course, drawbacks and a healthy market structure along with prolonged runs are always more welcome than just going straight up…

BTC ATM Implied Volatility

ETH ATM Implied Volatility

As we look here, IV has slowly been drifting over the past few months for both majors. When we get these prolonged downward trends it's time to get positioned, or at least start to nibble. We have been public here in the newsletter about accumulating various Sept/Dec payoffs that are starting to cash. Hopefully some readers took note.

We know that crypto is becoming more and more institutionalized, and that larger players are coming in and muting vol… but there is always a pop. I’m not sure BTC is a 100 vol asset anymore unfortunately, but even getting back up to 50/60 handle will be a blessing, even if just for the short term.

Just wanted to show this little chart right here. The exchanges are running their Total Open Interest high levels from December 2024. Money has, and is continuing to flow into crypto. This summer is very different than last year’s OI. Hyperliquid is about to pass Deribit, let's see if they can get through OKX in the future. Last newsletter we covered CME OI which I will touch back on the next newsletter because we need this following week's data after hitting ATH.

We are grateful to get a peak into the largest trades provided by Greeks.live. These trades were the largest trades blocked on Greeks.live this past week. As always, we can't see the whole book here or if they were opening/closing. Nothing major catches my eye like a sharp play or a mega whale manipulating the markets. We have some various calendars, some outright calls and puts sold into Aug/Dec.

One big trade I want to look back on that was featured here in the newsletter, is the guy who bought tons of ETH Dec 3/6k call spreads. He is probably up a decent amount now, let's see if the rally is sustained into end of year.

Marty’s Thoughts

Let’s turn to look at my current thoughts on the trajectory of the crypto market. While we regularly discuss these topics on our semi-daily Eden Show with the fellas, I find value in writing out these ideas every once in a while. Of course ideas change as the world changes. Here's how I see it now.

Consider the recent data from Visa, which highlights a significant trend (you can explore more here: https://visaonchainanalytics.com/transactions). Stablecoin volume has absolutely skyrocketed, consistently reaching new highs in both dollar amount moved and transaction count. This upward trend is set to continue.

One might hope we haven't spent over a decade developing this technology only for it to only be stablecoins. The truth is, I don't possess a crystal ball, but the global financial system is 100% moving towards instant settlement across all sectors. So there is hope that it’s not just going to be stables. Though, I'm not convinced that all traditional companies transitioning to this new world order will utilize public blockchains.

Remember, blockchain technology is a ledger, and it can be either private or public. For many corporations, the ability to reverse transactions and maintain overall control over their blockchains is most important. Also, not every piece of data needs to be in the public’s eye for these companies. While a lot of companies are currently experimenting with existing Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions, I believe most will ultimately develop their own blockchain systems.

Maybe with the help of Crypto native teams like Brazil did with their DREX program. Brazil’s government partnered with various crypto-native companies and brought them into the government sandbox to help build out the program. DREX is a CBDC, can read more here: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/financialstability/drex_en.

Following this, Brazil will probably be the first large country with a CBDC implemented, we will be the guinea pig for the world as we are a country with over 200 Million People.(I know DREX is a horrible name, just call it Digital Real)

The world demands instant settlement. There's simply no justifiable reason for delays of days for international transfers or stock trade settlements. Let’s keep it simple, today's youth have TikTok brain, they won’t tolerate T+2 settlement times for their stock sales and various transfers. Though for this vision to fully materialize, significant regulatory frameworks and approvals will be required to safeguard financial markets. Robinhood seems to be on the forefront of this with their Robinhood Chain… Great name…

As for the crypto trading sector itself, I anticipate continued growth. In all majors, ETFs, memes, and derivatives as a whole. Memecoins are pure entertainment and speculation, and people by nature, are drawn to gambling. Gamblors unite.

Regarding Bitcoin, it has firmly transitioned into an institutional asset. The days of retail "whole coiners" are largely behind us, shifting retail focus towards leveraged perpetuals, options, and other derivatives. On the institutional front, with multi-year contracts on offerings like IBIT, I am expecting to see a burst of structured products tailored for accredited/institutional investors.

On a final note, I had expected clearer guidance and regulation from the US on crypto by now. That doesn't seem to be the current situation. What we're witnessing instead is a free for all. As the US moves past the era of strict rules under Gary G, it feels like the Wild West once more, with publicly traded companies now leading the charge. I agree that stifling innovation in the US could be detrimental to crypto. However, average citizens still lack clear new guidelines or tax laws from the current administration. It appears the big players continue to benefit most.

That's a wrap folks, we will see you this week again for a back to back Options Talk With Marty Wednesday 2pm EST.

Final Thoughts

As we look into 2025, Premia V4 aka Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards.

As V4 comes into the public eye in testing shortly, we would love all of your feedback. I’ll work with the team on finding the best way to share bugs and feedback from our readers. If you have any good ideas, please share.

For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue (currently undergoing maintenance, so some courses might be unavailable). We are going to be launching a whole new academy for V4, with more up to date and more in depth content.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out July 2025 already!

Note: email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before.

Recap:

  • ATH Season

  • Big Week (Data)

  • Testnet Launching Soon

  • Wild West Is Back

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