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TL;DR: We Are So So So Back

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 34.86%

• 1M: 37.65%

• 3M: 42.97%

• 6M: 46.15%

• Index Price: $117,559

• DVOL: 39.87

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 68.82%

• 1M: 6704%

• 3M: 66.24%

• 6M: 66.29%

• Index Price: $3,763

• DVOL: 66.93

Note: ETH front-end lifted.

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

This week is a big week. From US data, tariff news, and tech earnings this week, we got it all. Things to watch out for:

• Tuesday July 29: JOLTS Job Openings

• Wednesday July 30: FOMC, Microsoft & Meta Earnings

• Thursday July 31: PCE, Unemployment Claims, Amazon & Apple Earnings

On the tariff side, it was decided that there will be a 15% baseline tariff on most EU exports to the US. A kicker to this is, the EU will buy $750b in energy from the US over 3 years. Looking at this, we need to look out a quarter or two to see the full effects coming into play. Tariffs are a tax, and while the government gets more income, the US consumer gets hit with this 15%. It is on MOST goods, there are some exemptions. Car tariffs from EU drop from 27.5% set in April to 15%.

Thought the tariffs are 15%, they are much less than the original projected. With markets… if the news is "less bad”, then its mostly good. Asia and Europe Markets rose this morning. Now we have to wait and see if this translates into the US markets.

• Charts from Velo: https://velodata.app/

• Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20

Marty’s Thoughts

This one is a little more writing, and less pictures. It is always good to switch it up. I wanted to touch on FOMC and tech earnings this week.

Quickly on FOMC, the FED WATCH CME TOOL is where to look at what the market is expecting. Cut, hike, or no change. It looks like a no change this time around, all eyes are on the September meeting for our first cut of the cycle. I know there is a lot of drama and noise around Trump and JPow… but Jpow will just finish his term, and then be replaced.

As for tech earnings, I am expecting smooth sailing. With the expansion of data centers, AI, users, etc. the ball should just keep rolling. We have Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Meta this week. Some powerhouse names. I know Zuck used to be an alien reptilian, but if you listen to his most recent interviews where he is talking about building out data centers, and the current “arms race”, it is a clear sign we are nowhere near the end yet. If there is a mishaps in earnings, expect that to be reflected in the overall market, but for now it looks like onwards and upwards.

As for price, we are seeing a little pullback this Monday morning, but overall things look good. Last week Galaxy sold off 80,000BTC for a client, and we’re sitting higher than that 114k dip. The sale shook the market swiftly, some players even picking up some short dated puts in SIZE. Around 5000 contracts in 1-2 week options, someone knew the announcement was coming… This morning on Eden we speculated if the Satoshi Era investor just decided it was a good time to diversify, or if he knew something bigger was coming. I am more in the camp that he decided to diversify.

Looking forward, what’s next? BTC sits 4% off ATH, ETH off 20%, we have been pumping for a month with no stops really and people are calling for the end… It is really hard to base anything of real value on X any longer, everyone is calling for it to be so over, and as soon as a green candle comes… we will be so back. If you want to continue in this market, it is time to find some real edge. For the last month, sure, you could have just longed your longs, but this comes to an end eventually, the chop comes, and people round trip and give it all back. Sure, I would love for up only to continue, but I am expecting some chop before continuation. Happy to be wrong.

I do think its funny that some large institutional guys gave up on ETH at the pico bottom, and only offer BTC services now. Goes to show, even some of the largest players thought it was so over. Everyone has their niche, everyone is trying to find and have an edge. You're not alone, and with trading you have to be flexible. The arb gets arb'd, the spread closes, fees changes, etc. You have to be adaptive to win.

Cozy posted this pasta in a chat, let’s not be like this guy.

“I love round tripping bro tbh there’s nothing like it. One moment you’re counting your eggs next moment they’re not hatching haha love that feeling man. You start thinking about all the things you’re going to do with that money and how life is so good then BOOM it’s all gone haha love that shit feels so good man.”

Final Thoughts

As we look into 2025, Premia V4 aka Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards.

As V4 comes into the public eye in testing shortly, we would love all of your feedback. I’ll work with the team on finding the best way to share bugs and feedback from our readers. If you have any good ideas, please share.

For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue (currently undergoing maintenance, so some courses might be unavailable). We are going to be launching a whole new academy for V4, with more up to date and more in depth content.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out July 2025 already!

Note: email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before.

Recap:

• Sitting Just Off ATH

• Big Week (Data)

• Large Institutional Player Drops ETH At Pico Bottom

• Tariffs ‘n Chill

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