The ETH Train

Please note that Kyan does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Tell It How It Is - The Market Don't Care

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 38.22%

• 1M: 35.67%

• 3M: 38.15%

• 6M: 42.25%

• Index Price: $112,209

• DVOL: 37.10

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 74.46%

• 1M: 71.75%

• 3M: 68.72%

• 6M: 67.62%

• Index Price: $4,654

• DVOL: 74.03

Things to watch this week

• Thursday: Prelim GDP q/q

• Friday: USA Core PCE m/m

Note: This week on the Marty X Kyan Options Show we have Mr. Marusha from CT on, we will cover trading alpha, Maru's intro to CT, and more. Tune in on Wednesday 2pm EST / 18hr UTC!

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

Just like to show price like this instead of in candles sometimes. It grounds us, makes us realized maybe it ain’t so bad. This is a monthly zoom out of both BTC and ETH, and the market doesn’t lie… All aboard the ETH train!

This week I want to cover a few things including basis, hopium, where is bitcoin landing, the 4 year cycle, and more. Let’s jump in!

First, we shall go down memory lane… it’s April. The tariffs are coming, it’s so over, ETH hits 1400ish. It is clearly over. We sit at this range for a month or so and we put in a solid low that we haven’t revisited since. I think 98% of people were caught off guard on this push to nearly 5k which is why we have seen such a rapid acceleration in price.

The tech didn’t magically get better overnight, but something shifted. There are 3 tradable products in TradFi for crypto. BTC, ETH, and SOL. The playbook is simply… basis trade with spot ETF/futures, take up supply and create hype/buying pressure with treasury companies, sell options on those treasury holdings. I’m not sure they are at stage 3 yet, but they will get there to juice their yields. A lot of miners have been selling options for years, it’s these new treasury companies that aren’t there yet.

First they did the playbook with BTC, now ETH, so what’s next…. dare I say they will do it with SOL? I wouldn’t doubt it, if there is a product to sell and make money these guys will sell it.

ETH Is Crushing It

ETH is crushing now, taking out its previous ATH over the weekend. so let’s focus there. Basis is juiced between 8-12%, futures OI and volume are skyrocketing. Basis is real and the traders are taking advantage of it. I have covered this before, but when you see insane ETF flows to the upside, you always need to check the futures flows as well.

Take a look at the monthly returns across large caps, mid caps, and small caps. Does this look like a bull market? I’m not too sure. Sure, the winners circle includes ETH, LINK, and AERO…

Overall, it looks like a slaughterhouse. Is this alt season in the room with us now?

As always we stay clear and far from memes and alts. There is tons of hopium on CT daily of some new alts, some new shiny toy, and every day is a new influenza selling some hopium on the block. Let’s cover hopium quickly…

There is conviction and there is hopium. Though they are very similar i would say the main difference is being education and research. Conviction is when you have educated yourself and done the research, then placed your bets, and you ride it out. Hopium mostly includes gambling, not doing the research.

Though gambling is human nature, and keeps our markets alive… you don't have to log in everyday, punt money on random tickers, smoke hopium, and think you’re going to be rich.

Yes, some people hypergamble their way to millions, and I think CT glorifies this, but for every 1 that makes it, 1000 people lose it all. That’s the harsh reality of the game that we play. The stakes are high, and someone has to lose for us to win.

Quick Chart Dump

Monthly sector performance — L2 category takes the crown, the rest are getting turbo nuked.

1-month return by day — for BTC, Wednesday is our golden day for the past month. We have been getting hammered on the start of the week. But check below….

For ETH the green candles run the world. GAT DAM! It has just been the ETH train, everyday besides Monday/Thursday has been a massive green dildo. I’m not sure how much long it lasts, so enjoy it pimps.

The 4-year Cycle

I want to cover the 4 year cycle, and where BTC goes from here.

I’m happy to be wrong and as a trader, we can always pivot and put on a different trade. The Bitcoin 4-year cycle stems from the halving mechanism where miners' rewards are cut in half, creating supply shocks that historically drove predictable patterns. Simply… Bitcoin would run first, then Ethereum, then shitters. This cycle has been completely different.

For over a year, Bitcoin dominated exclusively while ETH stagnated. Then shitters ran while ETH went nowhere, and now altcoins are getting destroyed as ETH finally pushes toward all time highs. This inversion suggests fundamental market structure changes driven by institutionalization. Remember there are only 3 main tradable products for the suits… BTC, ETH, SOL.

Maybe Su Zhu was right, just early… The supercycle seems to be here. The signs are clear — institutionalization accelerating daily, volatility is dying, and steady upward price action since ETF launch. We're transitioning from retail driven boom bust cycles to true institutional growth. Bitcoin ETFs brought Wall Street validation and created steady institutional buying. Corporate treasuries, pension funds, and wealth managers are now all allocating to Bitcoin, and crypto majors at an insane pace via ETFs, mostly via Blackrock’s offerings.

For Bitcoin and Ethereum options and futures traders, this environment rewards patience over timing explosive moves. The traditional cycle playbook may no longer apply. Lower volatility means adjusting strategies while maintaining exposure to the long-term growth story. The current meme apocalypse hitting altcoins while BTC and ETH remain stable shows market participants are becoming selective, comfortable with established cryptocurrencies but skeptical of speculative tokens. This is no shock. Again, there is only 3 tradable products on CME for the suits.

As I see it, with all these new TradFi participants flocking in, they will continue to sell and create new products, overall dampening vols MORE and MORE. I hope and suspect that these new treasury companies have banks and PMs in their ear trying to sell them various structured products (SP). SP have been my pride and joy to research, learn about, and build any payoff you could imagine. I will put out a separate article about the halving, and structured products over the next month or so to dive deeper into the thoughts above.

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As we look into 2025, Kyan will be launching. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards.

Majority of my 3rd quarter will be working with Mr. Weka writing educational content including more long form, advanced topics, and how-to tutorials. We may even do some videos as well for all to learn easily. If there is something you want to see us write about and put in there, please reach out. For now, if you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue.

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Recap:

• Basis is Back

• L2 Category Takes The Lead

• Bull Run Just For ETH

• Supercycle?

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