Crypto Rinsed, TradFi ATH | Monday Alpha #53

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Rinserino in Crypto, Tradfi ATH

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 33.12%

• 1M: 33.89%

• 3M: 38.30%

• 6M: 55.22%

• Index Price: $112,512

• DVOL: 36.44

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 61.68%

• 1M: 61.29%

• 3M: 61.97%

• 6M: 63.82%

• Index Price: $4,174

• DVOL: 63.21

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

We seemed to have run through a whole bull market in a single weekend on some alts, including ASTER and AVNT. We even got CZ to emerge from the woodwork with unprecedented engagement across the board. It was all looking fantastic… until futures opened last night.

It can be incredibly frustrating watching our positions bleed while AI and tech stocks push U.S. markets to historic highs. But we need to remember why we entered the crypto space in the first place. We came here for outsized returns — and we still get them, just maybe not when we want them most. I'd love to see U.S. futures, crypto, and gold all rallying simultaneously, but that's rarely how markets work.

The charts tell the story perfectly. In the past month, gold is up over 11%, NVIDIA and QQQ are making new highs, while crypto continues its grinding consolidation and as of yesterday… its freefall. We're witnessing a classic rotation where different asset classes take turns leading. Right now, traditional tech is absorbing all the "future of technology" capital flows, leaving crypto temporarily sidelined.

Yet the long-term thesis remains intact. Looking at the broader timeline, crypto still delivers the asymmetric upside we originally came for… returns that dwarf traditional indices over meaningful time horizons. NVDA may be leading the pack overall, but picking individual tech names is just as challenging as navigating crypto markets. The difference is crypto's volatility creates opportunities that simply don't exist elsewhere… until now? There is always a sector that has the spotlight on it, and since the launch of GPT the light has been on AI and tech as a whole.

Note: This rotation won't last forever. There is always a shiny new toy and a ticker to trade. We just have to stop running through metas in a weekend here in the crypto space. I'm assuming the next one on the list is XPL with their hint of releasing a Neo Bank today on Twitter. (NFA)

Quick Chart Dump

From top to bottom, 1-month returns in large caps, mid caps, and small caps.

Some winners, some losers. More red than green. Though this is a 1-month look, if you pull up the charts on the weekly there are some insane runners from this weekend. We need to stop running through metas over a weekend.

Even if we look at things like LDO, which was supposed to be piggybacking native staking on the ETH ETFs, we can see it's been slaughtered in the last 30 days.

More charts below:

The ONLY thing that's positive in the last 30 days is L1. Everything else is getting absolutely murdered. Even the L1 basket is only up 1% this month… not great. This chart is interactive on Velo, so you can check which coins they put in each basket.

U.S. trading hours with their burger bid seem to be the only thing keeping us afloat lately. EU and APAC sessions have been consistently brutal for BTC and ETH…

Basis has remained remarkably steady over the past six months, with both BTC and ETH consistently floating around 8% annualized. This represents one of the most straightforward trades available to traders. I've covered the trade before: you buy the underlying, short the futures, and lock in nearly 8% annual returns with zero directional risk.

For larger institutions, this type of scalable, “risk-free” yield is incredibly attractive in today's environment. You can check the CME futures against the ETF inflows to see this as well.

• Charts from Velo Data: https://velodata.app/

• Twitter: https://twitter.com/VeloData?s=20

Kyan Sneak Peek

As we all know, Kyan is Premia's rebrand into a full-fledged derivatives exchange. The platform will feel very familiar to Deribit users with its Portfolio Margin system and the addition of perpetual contracts alongside options. All contracts will be USDC-margined, and there will be a multi-leg strategy builder plus RFQ functionality for larger and more sophisticated users. Above is a sneak peek of the new and improved UI!

Kyan is currently in its final stages of private testing before the testnet launch in early October. This testnet phase will include a trading competition, giving users the opportunity to try out the platform and get rewarded for participation! The timing couldn't be better: as institutional demand for crypto derivatives continues growing, having a decentralized alternative with professional-grade features will capture significant market share from the centralized incumbents.

Wrap-up

Recap:

• Basis is steady at 8%

• U.S. sessions keeping us afloat

• Crypto still outperforming TradFi indices in the long run

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