Reset Spring? | Monday Alpha 54

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Reset Spring?

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 35.81%

• 1M: 36.21%

• 3M: 39.87%

• 6M: 42.79%

• Index Price: $125,717

• DVOL: 38.32

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 59.98%

• 1M: 62.11%

• 3M: 62.81%

• 6M: 63.57%

• Index Price: $4,710

• DVOL: 63.09

Things To Remember This Week:

• U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown.

• Events and data are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation.

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

Let's start simple with the 4-hour chart on BTC & ETH.

The ETH chart is from Kraken, and we saw a spot wick higher than any other exchange this morning, bumping right into our meme line. I'm no TA expert, but this is the range we're in. Last week, towards the end of September, we dipped and kept dipping, much more than I was expecting. I was anticipating the $4k to $4.1k area to hold a bit more firmly. After the dip, investors piled back into crypto as gold, tech, and other stock sectors continued their rally. The quick recovery shows how resilient risk appetite remains and how it can be down one moment and back up the following days or weeks.

Let's bundle the 5-year and the YTD timelines together for this next section. In the last newsletter, we covered why people flocked to crypto and how and when we get outsized returns versus other asset classes.

The 5-year duration paints a much different story than the YTD shows. It's "change the chart to match your bias" season. The 5-year still shows crypto outperforming as a sector versus US indices, but individual names like NVDA and Build-A-Bear are outperforming our coins... Yes, the plush bear company is outtrading our entire industry. Let that sink in.

If we go to YTD, precious metals are outperforming our coins, with little to no drawdown, and much less volatility. AMD is the pack leader after they announced a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to use AMD chips in their next build-out. We have been saying for a while now on the Eden Show with the fellas that AMD just needs to announce/partner with any company in relation to AI, and the stock would fly… here we are today.

Of course, picking single-name stocks is hard to do correctly, but it goes to show that we need to look outside of our bubble. There's a real economy out there, with real businesses making real profits. The narrative that crypto is the only game in town for alpha generation just doesn't hold up when you zoom out and compare performance across sectors. Don't get lost in the Twittersphere. It's a humbling reminder that diversification and perspective matter, even in a bull market.

Outside of majors being purely green, it's a mixed bag for mid and small caps. The DEX meta over the last few weekends seemed to have sucked a lot of liquidity from other coins.

Picking single tickers in crypto is just as difficult as in TradFi. Even companies like AAVE, which keep hitting impressive milestones, are flat over the past month, while memes with no real business model are up and performing well. We've mentioned before on our live shows that the next set of tradable crypto assets will be bundles, but it's challenging because you can't have a CRYPTO 100, as it would need to be rebalanced daily. The volatility and constant rotation make index construction a nightmare compared to traditional markets.

However, we are starting to see ETF providers launch bundles with BTC/ETH/SOL to start, and you should expect this sector to expand and continue to grow as the space becomes more institutionalized. As regulatory clarity improves, infrastructure matures, and market caps grow, bundled products will likely become the default way most investors gain diversified crypto exposure.

Quick Chart Dump

US bid is still carrying us, but the EU and APAC fellas are following. There has been a constant bid, and any dip continues to be slurped up and pushed to new highs shortly after.

DING DING DING! We have some winners! Last newsletter it was so over, and this one we are so so so back.

Steady climbing as price is pushed to new highs. 8%+ is starting to get juicy for the larger players, I would expect a little higher before basis gets crushed again. I have covered it many times, but for readers who don't know… Basis is the difference between Spot and Futures price. You as a trader can buy spot, and sell the future to capture the basis.

• Charts from Velo Data: https://velo.xyz/futures

• X: https://x.com/velo_xyz

Greekslive Marketplace Block Trades

• To Join Greekslive Block Marketplace: t.me/GreeksLive

• Find Greekslive On X: https://twitter.com/GreeksLive

We are grateful to get a peek into the largest trades provided by Greeks Live. These trades were the largest trades blocked on Greeks Live this past week. The team over at Greeks Live has given us even more insight by now providing information on whether the RFQ was on the buy or sell side, and which exchange it was settled on, which gives readers and traders more insight into the books of these larger players. I will continue to share these biweekly here in the newsletter and weekly in the Marty Telegram Group.

Coming into September month-end, crypto was in free fall. I know we have been flying higher the past few days, but it was a tough week just two weeks ago. There was a lot of activity around December trades as we were dipping, and the clear winner is the buyer of the 991x December 105k calls.

There was also a trade that crossed the tape last Friday, I believe (not pictured), that was 6000x October 31, 124k calls, which is a mega trade, and he is currently WINNING. We will cover that large trade in depth, his execution, and his winnings in the next newsletter.

Wrap-up

As prices reach all-time highs, if you are in a heavily leveraged position with a life-changing profit, consider taking action to change your life. We saw several people face significant losses this weekend trying to short as prices continued to rise. Happy trading pimps.

As mentioned on the Eden Show, we are in a bubble. While we haven't reached the level of the tulip mania, the bubble has begun, and we are in its early stages. As with any new revolutionary technology, investors often throw money like darts, hoping one will succeed and cover the costs of all their other investments. We are just at the beginning. People are increasingly attached to their phones, data usage will continue to grow, and AI will keep revolutionizing sectors as the world moves into a new era. Of course, with innovation, there are ups and downs, but the overall trend is upward. It is quite a simple game, but most can't hold on. Here are the rules: As countries print more and more fiat currency, assets continue to rise.

It really is quite simple. And even though it's simple, picking individual stocks or cryptocurrencies is challenging, and people are paid well to try to outperform investment return baselines. If you bullieve that individual names will outperform, good luck to you; you are probably better off buying baskets like everyone else.

If you're picking cryptocurrencies, there is really only one choice that doesn't have, or won't have, any competition in the future. The coin is orange; you can figure it out.

Note: None of this is financial advise, as I write this, it is probably the top, thanks for playing.

As we look into 2025, Kyan will be launching very soon with a Testnet Competition. With portfolio margin and perps, it will be a great place to check out, trade, and compete in future competitions for rewards.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out April 2025 already!

If you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue. We will continue to add and expand these readings with more content, including video format!

Note: email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before.

Recap:

• Basis is Gaining

• Mixed Bag Returns Across Market Cap Sectors

• Build A Bear Is Outperforming Our Coins

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