What Happened on 10/10? | Monday Alpha 55

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TL;DR: What Happened on 10/10?

BTC ATM IV

• 1W: 44.54%

• 1M: 45.25%

• 3M: 46.94%

• 6M: 47.42%

• Index Price: $111,009

• DVOL: 46.47

ETH ATM IV

• 1W: 68.64%

• 1M: 70.10%

• 3M: 69.62%

• 6M: 68.78%

• Index Price: $4,039

• DVOL: 72.44

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

This is one of those Marty’s newsletters with more alpha and less charts. I like to engage the readers, and leave them with some questions every once and a while…

Before we get into it… Let's look above. The 1-month large-cap returns are nothing short of miserable. As US equities and global metals rip it into new highs, we are sitting here being laughed at. Crypto is the first mover in any market; rarely do we lag… It looks completely over for memes, alts, and anything besides BTC. Careful which bags you choose to hold. I want to leave our readers with a few questions in this article… First set of questions to ponder… Why trade alts in this kind of environment and this stage of the cycle? Maybe go trade anything else? Just a thought.

OK… Now a dive deeper into Marty's Thoughts.

Let's flash back to two weeks ago, Bitcoin made a new all-time high around $126k while ETH was pushing $4,800, flirting with its own record. What happened next caught nearly everyone off guard. Half of CT (maybe more) got liquidated over the span of just a few hours on Friday, October 10th. A market-wide selloff after US market close extended into crypto, with exchanges facing UI and API outages that sent Bitcoin crashing to $101k and ETH down to $3,400. Given the excessive leverage in this space, countless traders were completely wiped out in a matter of hours. There was initial speculation about major firms blowing up, but the big shops all appear to be fine. Still, someone large clearly lost serious money or went under entirely; we just don't know who yet. I like how CT is so quick to blame Wintermute and other big shops…

Prices rebounded quickly from those brutal Friday wicks, though we're still trading below the initial bounce levels of around $115k Bitcoin and $4,300 ETH. This leaves us in an interesting position as US indices continue ripping to new highs. Gold and precious metals are trading like the world is ending, while the dollar has depreciated roughly 10% year-to-date, marking the largest single decline in USD over a six-month period in 50 years. We're seeing asset inflation away from the dollar as investors hunt for ways to de-risk their portfolios. As we say often on the Eden stream, gold dipped 50% and traded sideways for a decade before finally seeing appreciation; now retail is lining up to buy physicals; it probably doesn't end well. What was once the domain of gold bugs has now become consensus, with central banks and retail investors alike viewing gold as the safe haven the dollar used to be, pushing it to new highs almost daily.

It feels late in the business cycle. Things aren't over and growth will continue, but there are major issues on the horizon we'll need to navigate. The US government is currently shut down over a relatively small amount of money, which is really just symbolic of the daily head-butting between Republicans and Democrats that's ultimately negative for long-term stability.

Global investors are watching the dollar's decline with concern, and while asset inflation benefits the middle class and wealthy, lower earners are getting squeezed in their daily budgets. Tariffs seem to be in the rear-view mirror until a sporadic tweet or announcement from the administration threatens new ones. I'm still not convinced the market is properly pricing in the inflation risk tariffs could present in 2026, which might explain why markets react so sharply to any tariff news, even though they've been instantly bid back up. It's definitely something to monitor closely.

These are just some longer-term considerations I'm tracking, though I still trade the moment. Whenever I write negative articles, it usually marks a bottom and the perfect entry, so let me give the bulls some hope. While crypto has been lagging, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold are rebounding and approaching new all-time highs. We have FOMC next week with a 98.9% probability of a rate cut, according to the Fed Watch Tool.

I had an interesting conversation recently with a sharp friend of mine who also believes we're late in the cycle.

He's started denominating his portfolio in fiat rather than coin, which is a notable shift. Typically you denominate in coin and ride the wave, double dipping on profits as trading gains get rolled back into crypto while your underlying holdings appreciate simultaneously. Our discussion evolved into whether the four year crypto cycle still exists in a post ETF world. I recently wrote that we're in the "zhupercycle" where prices go up forever, which is probably true as long as fiat keeps depreciating. But he twisted the question back on me regarding the four year cycle specifically… if the whales still believe in it, then what? I still haven't sat and thought about it through or researched it as much as I would like it…

That leaves you, the reader, with another question to ponder. Once I read into it a little more, I’ll write a long form and some tweet storms about it. Probably within the next week or two.

Note: He says he reads the newsletter, so lets see if he pings me.

I’ll take this question and let you guys think about it. If anyone wants to come on the Marty Show and discuss this further, I am happy to host a discussion/debate around this topic. I think it will be an interesting one for CT.

Weekly Greeks.live Block Trades

Shoutout to greeks.live for giving us an inside look into the largest trades of the past week. As always, we can never see these traders’ full books, some trades spark my interest…. As we wrote a somewhat bearish newsletter above, let’s give the readers some hopium.

• Various strikes for the December 26th expiry were scooped up.

• Large traders seem to be honing in on December with some mega upside calls being bought in hopes of a Santa rally.

• All eyes on the 120k BTC target for EOY expiries.

• On the other end you have mostly sold puts, various expiries, which looks good for a bottom.

Wrap-up

Though we remain bullish on BTC and blockchain tech in the long run, there are some speed bumps to get through in the next months/upcoming year. From a US government shutdown to a rise in inflation in 2026 due to tariffs, there are things to keep your eye on.

We never want to come on the newsletter or the streams and lead our viewership one direction or another. We always try to remain unbiased, and give a view into both sides of the coin. Stay on your toes, and don't get married to one direction. Even though markets keep grinding up, the downside risk is sharp and the price moves faster than most anticipate. Tune down the leverage slider, don't get liquidated, and happy trading.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 4000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the Options Talk Show, if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out December 2025 already!

Recap:

• Is the 4-Year Cycle Over?

• Investors Flock to Gold.

• Some Speed Bumps on the Horizon.

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