Market Data #12

TLDR: Post ETF Clarity - No Mans Land

Author

Marty
January 29, 2024

Gm Anons, the alpha is free on Mondays.

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TLDR: Post ETF Clarity - No Mans Land

BTC ATM IV

  • 1W: 40.02%

  • 1M: 41.96%

  • 3M: 47.26%

  • 6M: 52.05%

  • Index Price: $42,077

  • DVOL: 44.42

ETH ATM IV

  • 1W: 38.54%

  • 1M: 40.93%

  • 3M: 47.21%

  • 6M: 53.51%

  • Index Price: $2,250

  • DVOL: 44.70

Note: ETH DVOL trading higher than BTC DVOL

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Marty’s Thoughts

I wanted to start with Marty's Thoughts this time around.

We got that Post ETF Clarity, the hype was not real, the hopium was. As I do believe more products for people to trade is always a good thing, this event was so overhyped and as we’ve seen, vols and prices got crushed post event. We had been writing here for about a year about the possibility of this happening, and even had an article titled hopium…

Moving forward I expect GBTC to flush more, with money moving into other ETF's or just outright cash — currently, these flows are getting priced in. You may not realize it, but these GBTC players held a 50% discount to Nav trade… for a long time… the trade is now over, and they want to realize gains. GBTC has higher fees than other products as well.

Another thing people don't realize is that these flows are hedged, they do not go to Coinbase and market sell… these trades are handled and executed by a desk, and as coins change hands, they are hedged the whole way though. We can cover this more on our Wednesday Options Talk with our guests including the flows, process, and what this means.

With our Post ETF Clarity, we can see clearly what’s to come. We had been writing about 2024 throughout 2023 while vols were dead.

2024 carries a lot of natural volatility-inducing catalysts. Let’s cover them… BTC Spot ETF, BTC halving, Ether ETF, 2024 US elections, and perhaps even rate cuts in the US. These are all positive for the space and risk assets as a whole. Once these Spot ETF flows settle, I believe we will find common ground and the Spot ETFs will be a great tool for US persons to invest (and or speculate) on BTC and its price.

I am still in the boat that vols are currently underpriced for these future events. If you have been a reader for a while then you will get the next reference. I believe the famous sell short dated garbage to fund the long term Vega play is back. Simply a bet that future volatility will rise from here. Into events I unwind these types of plays as I know what is to come post events… the vol crush.

Timing the absolute top is impossible, so unwinding positions periodically into these events is key. We are sitting at a 40vol product. For example, into the Spot ETF event, 1W ATM was trading at 100vol. I’m not going to shill my positioning nor am I going to give trade ideas to execute this.

With all that said, let’s get into it — the alpha is free on Mondays.

BTC and ETH Prices

BTC, ETH, NQ, GOLD Prices

30-day rolling correlation BTC, ETH, and Gold vs NQ

30-day rolling correlation BTC, ETH, NQ

I want to talk about the 2 charts above with all the correlations. Why are correlations important?

These correlations aren't the "holy grail" of trading but rather a tool for informed decision making. I do look at these charts more when correlations get out of their normal bounds. When these correlations get out of their normal bounds, its time to pay attention and look for emerging trends or a reversion in the pairs.

The most important ones I pay attention to are BTC/NQ, BTC/ETH, the rest are just fun to look at and keep an eye on.

BTC Gamma Exposure by Strike

ETH Gamma Exposure by Strike

Areas Of Interest:

  • BTC: 40,000-46,000

  • ETH: 2,400, 2,500

With the anticipation of new (positive) events in 2024, there's a growing interest in potential upside, as reflected in the charts showing Gamma Exposure leaning predominantly towards the upside. This bias indicates a market sentiment skewed towards positive outcomes.

However, it's crucial to remember that these charts can change rapidly, mirroring the volatile nature of options positioning.

BTC IV vs HV

ETH IV vs HV

In our last newsletter, HV was trading higher and had crossed above IV, it simply means past price movements have been more volatile than what the market currently anticipates for the future. This is expected after a huge event like the ETF launch. Volatility builds up into the event, gets crushed and past price moves become more volatile than future.

We are now at a turning point, IV now crossed, and is trading higher than HV.

Until further clarification, we are in no mans land. We are awaiting the next catalyst, which the next news cycle seems to be the ETH ETF, the BTC Halving, and the 2024 US presidential elections. I would expect vols to climb into these events and get crushed every time. I also would expect Crypto Twitter to become Macro experts.

What does it mean when IV crosses HV?

When IV trades or crosses above HV, it means that market participants expect greater future volatility in the asset's price compared to its past volatility. This can be a sign of increased uncertainty or anticipation of significant upcoming events that might impact an assets price. This helps play into our 2024 thesis with more catalysts on the horizon.

Weekly Insights from GreeksLive

Over the past week, the Greeks Live Block Market Place has shown a wide variety of trades come across the tape, from outright put buying to selling puts and calls, indicating a lack of clear direction among traders.

This trading behavior reinforces the idea that the market is currently in no man's land or a cooldown period following the recent ETF event, as participants await the next significant market catalyst.

Meanwhile, overall trading volume on GreeksLive has been increasing, highlighting a growing interest in options trading. For those seeking advanced trading tools, such as Dynamic Delta Hedging, GreeksLive offers a range of tools to enhance trading strategies.

Wrap-Up

To wrap things up, I wanted to just give you guys all a visual overview of the CME and GBTC. We had covered CME for the first time on the New Years Edition at the beginning of the month so I thought we should follow up.

Options and futures OI and volume dropped post ETF. People have other products to trade and the hype is over, so its normal for these to drop. I’m looking forward to options on spot products, which will be something to cover here when the data becomes available.

Recap:

  • Post ETF Clarity - No mans land

  • Vol Crush

  • New catalysts in 2024

Areas of Interest:

  • BTC: 40,000-46,000

  • ETH: 2,400, 2,500

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